Here are a few of our most Frequently Asked Questions
You will receive all of plays throughout the day via email.
Subscribers will receive a confirmation email to the email address they signed up with. Once you click on the confirmation link, your email will be added to the MVP Genius database and you will start receiving tips for the sports you have signed up for direct to your email. This process will continue for the duration of your subscription
There will occasionally be bets which are not our core, usually an arbitrage bet where regardless of the result, a profit will be made.
The majority of our bets however will be made in sports where we have expert knowledge, and more importantly, mathematical models which crunch up to 30 years’ worth of data.
The most common sports we cover are: Australian Rules Football, Rugby League, Rugby Union, Soccer, Tennis, Basketball, American Football, Horse Racing and Cricket.
Every day. Sport around the world never sleeps and neither does the MVP Genius team.
There is always a match or event for us to analyse. Larger numbers of tips will be sent on Thursdays and Fridays in preparation for the upcoming weekend’s sport but there are plenty sent midweek also.
There is no guarantee of exactly how many bets will be sent each week or day because we do not recommend bets just for the sake of betting. Bets are only recommended if our analysis indicates they are +EV.
It is in your best interest to have an account with all bookmakers available to you because the small ones occasionally offer significantly better odds than others.
MVP Genius bet on all sports where we have statistical data readily available. Most bookmakers have weaknesses in certain sports and when a bet it recommended, the bookmaker with the best odds will be too.
To maximise value and profits, we recommend accounts be made with TAB, Sportsbet, Bet365, Centrebet, Bookmaker, Betezy, Pinnacle, Betfair, Sportingbet, IASBet, Tom Waterhouse, Ladbrokes and Luxbet.
For exclusive sign-up bonuses, view all the offers available to MVP Genius subscribers on the MVP Genius website.
Please note that receiving the best odds will greatly affect your results and profitability, so we strongly suggest signing up using the above link. The exclusive sign up bonus you will receive increases your profit even futher.
You may want to be selective in the tips which you follow up by betting but due to variance, it is better to bet on all bets sent out.
It is understandable if some people are selective in the tips they are sent due to time constraints, lack of interest in a sport or market movements but over the long run, increasing the amount of bets followed will decrease variance.
Most bets which are sent out will be line bets which can only have two possible results. The bet will only be recommended if there is a lean towards one side of the line which will make it a +EV bet.
Other bets which are sent out are arbitrage bets, middling bets and futures bets. There will also be miscellaneous bets sent out depending on the sport and the circumstances surrounding the bet.
An arbitrage bet is one which will land a profit, regardless of the event outcome.
An example would be Player A vs Player B market. Sportsbet might have Player A at $2.25 and Player B at $1.79. Bet365 might have Player A at $1.88 and Player B at $2.16.
In this case, it would be recommended to back both players to guarantee an 8% return with absolutely zero risk. The only thing to be mindful of is one agency cancelling a bet, but when deciding whether to send out an arbitrage bet, our team uses their years of experience to determine the profitability of the bet.
A middling bet is one which has very little risk with high potential return. They are most common in line betting where different bookmakers set lines at different values.
They are most commonly seen in player props but will occasionally be seen in match points lines.
An example would be if Luxbet had Peyton Manning’s passing yard line at 340.5 with both over and under at $1.87. Centrebet may also have a market for Peyton Manning’s passing yards put set the line at 310.5 with both over and under at $1.87
In this case, it would be recommended to bet on ‘under’ with Luxbet and ‘over’ at Centrebet. If Manning then throws between 311 and 340 yards, both bets pay out. If he throws any other number, you would only lose 6.5% of the initial outlay.
MVP Genius only send out recommendations which are ‘+EV’ which is shorthand for the mathematical term, ‘expectation’.
Let’s break down our definition into several parts.
Let’s say for example (this is an arbitrary figure to explain EV) we can tip 56% ATS (‘Against The Spread, or in layman’s terms, ‘the line.’) One example of the line is the handicap that a team faces, such as Hawthorn -7.5 for the AFL Grand Final meant they needed to win by 8 points or more to clear the line (their opposition, Fremantle, had a 7.5 point head start by the line). The other main spread bet is the total points in a game, where you can bet on either under or over the line.
Most bets provided by MVP Genius are ATS. Other bets you will see are called player props which are bets on the statistical performance of an individual player such as the number of points, goals or possessions depending on the sport)
Now let’s introduce some maths. Standard ATS odds will be $1.91 (-110 for those in the United States) or greater. The mathematical definition of expectation is the sum of probabilities of an outcome multiplied by the “payoff” when that outcome occurs. In the examples to follow, the payoff is the amount that you either win or lose.
If you were to bet 1 unit at $1.91 with a 56% chance of winning, this means 56% of the time you will win $0.91, and 44% of the time you will lose $1.
Mathematically, the expectation is: (0.56 x 0.91) + (0.44 x -1) = 0.5096 - .44 = 0.0696. So for each unit you bet you expect to receive a profit of 0.0696, or a profit on turnover of 6.96%. If you bet $100 a unit, on average you will receive $6.96 of profit on each bet. Given the number of bets we provide, and the effect of compounding, profits can grow very quickly.
Where the expectation is a positive number, the terminology is ‘+EV’ (Positive Expected Value). Obviously, and clearly, the better the odds you get for an event the higher your expectation. If you managed to find a bookie offering $1.95 ATS, your expectation would be (0.56 x 0.95) + (0.44 x -1) = 9.2%. That is a huge difference and demonstrates the importance of having access to as many books as possible and meticulously finding the best odds on offer. Finding the best odds is included in all MVP subscriptions, and we recommend signing up to the following bookies so you can maximise the value of your subscription:
Obviously, however, if you bet once you aren’t going to receive a profit of 6.96%; You will either win and receive a 91% return on your investment, or you will lose, resulting in the loss of your entire investment or a profit of -100%. As you can see, both of these outcomes are significantly different from the expectation of a profit of 6.96%. The varying results you get away from the expectation is called variance.
The more events you bet on (mathematically speaking an increase in sample size), the less variance there is. As the sample size increases, the actual return will trend to the expected return. This is why you will not see a return of 6.96% after one event, but you will start seeing it after 100 events or more.
Looking into variance another way, let's say that you and a friend toss a coin. If it comes up tails, you get $2. If it comes up heads, you need to pay your friend $1. Obviously this is a great bet for you, but you are going to lose 50% of the time. There will be stretches where heads comes up numerous times in a row and as a high percentage of a specified sample (say 8 out of 10 tosses). This is natural statistical variation and is unavoidable.
The coin example also demonstrates the importance of having a bankroll and managing it appropriately. Imagine if you only had $1 - you have a 50% chance of going bust after just one toss (and this doesn't include the probability of winning the first toss but then going bust thereafter after a run of heads that your bankroll cannot sustain) and missing out on what would be highly profitable betting situation - what a waste!
Clearly, the larger your bankroll, the smaller the chance you have of going bust. At the same time, if you bet too small a percentage of your bankroll per event you will be unnecessarily giving up potential profits without making a meaningful reduction in risk. An important concept here is that there are only a finite number of events to place a bet on. Back to the coin example; imagine you could only engage in 10 tosses. If you bet a tiny percentage of your bankroll, you could be sure you wouldn't go bust but you could also be certain that you would make little profit relative to your bankroll. The aim here is to outlay as much as possible while still removing, or greatly mitigating, the risk of going bust (depending on your risk tolerance). This is a fine balancing act and falls under the realms of a concept called maximizing '+EG' (Positive Expected Growth), and is a central tenet of astute bankroll management.
At MVP Genius, we structure our bankroll and betting amounts so that there is a minimal chance of going bust while still allowing the ability to make significant profits relative to the bankroll outlay. Essentially we have produced strategies that are optimal on the risk/return scale.
What this all means: Sports betting investing is a long term exercise.
In the short term, variance leads to fluctuations in betting results. But in the long term the ability to pick winners and placing bets on +EV situations will ensure sustainable profits.
Because we send out tips every day, our ROI is constantly changing. We recommend you view our results page for an up-to-date figure.
One day is a very small sample and is greatly exposed to variance.
A bankroll is the total amount of money a punter is prepared to gamble. It is often said in gambling that you must be prepared to lose anything you bet. A bankroll is not different. Before you commence any form of gambling, you must know how much you have in your bankroll and be prepared to lose the entire amount. However, it is unlikely you will lose your entire bankroll if you stay disciplined and follow your staking strategy.
A stake is generic unit which is used to measure how much money you place on a bet, and is a proportion of your bankroll. Everyone will have a different stake which is dictated by how big their bankroll is.
The staking strategy is all about long term gains. There will be days of big wins or big losses (variance) which can make undisciplined punters alter their staking strategies but in the long term; the staking strategy delivers long term profits.
When a bet is recommended, the recommended stake is included. This is formed by assessing expected value (EV) against market odds. This is how to the staking strategy minimises risk and it draws upon financial theories commonly used in hedge fund management and bonds trading.
The advised staking strategy for subscribers is 1 unit/stake = 1% of your betting balance. Please view our staking calculator here
We recommend your stake to be 1% of your total bankroll. For example, if you have a $1000 bankroll, your stake should be $10.
Most professionals recalculate their stake after every bet so that their stake is always 1% of their bankroll. This ensures your risk levels are consistent regardless of whether you are having a winning or losing day.
Time and liquidity are the two biggest factors in market movement.
If a market only has a small amount of money bet on it, one big bet can drastically change the odds in the market. This can be very common on player prop bets if 90% of bets are made on ‘over’ and only 10% of bets are made on ‘under’.
Match handicap bets (bets at the line) have much higher liquidity so it would take many large bets for the odds to move. The liquidity also varies between sports. The greater the value of bets on a sport, the greater liquidity there is.
While professional punters do exist as a profession, they require an extremely large bankroll to be sustainable. Unless you have a bankroll of $500,000+, you’re best off keeping your day job.